Research

Demystifying Monetary Policy Surprises: Fed Response to Financial Conditions and Wait-and-See for New Economic Data
This paper explains why monetary policy surprises are predictable: the Fed responds to financial conditions while taking a wait-and-see approach to economic data.
Source Document DOI ScienceDirect ResearchGate
From Disruption to Integration: Cryptocurrency Prices, Financial Fluctuations, and Macroeconomy
Cryptocurency price shocks, financial markets spillover and macroeconomy transmission.
DOI
Modeling Inflation Expectations in Forward-Looking Interest Rate and Money Growth Rules
In the vast majority of specifications of the foreward-looking policy feedback rule, money growth is a better policy indicator than a short-term interest rate.
PDF DOI
A Granular Investigation on the Stability of Money Demand
The unstable money demand function can be a result of erroneous measure of money.
DOI
Monetary Transmission in Money Markets: The Not-So-Elusive Missing Piece of the Puzzle
Adding variables to a VAR model may not solve the price puzzle but changing the policy indicator does.
PDF DOI
Political Influence in the Fed Policymaking: The Case of Economic Forecast Bias
The federal reserve claims independence from political influence. The Fed’s economic forecast errors tell a different story.
Embedding Rational Expectations in a Structural VAR: Internal and External Instruments for Set Identification
Rational expectations are now embedded in a structural VAR.
Safety Premia, Treasury Duration and Safe Asset Aggregation
To properly aggregate the quantity of safe assets given the imperfect substitution among safe assets in different durations.
The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission
The risk-taking channel of monetary transmission is a matter of the uncertainty of long-term interest rate and the term premium.
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